Forum:2013 Atlantic hurricane season
Only June 01 2013 00:00:00 UTC until the Atlantic hurricane season starts... Future start Coming in slightly more than one month :D.--Isaac829 19:41, April 23, 2013 (UTC) Could be earlier than that Isaac as the Euro,cmc and Gfs are hinting and actually showing sub tropical storm Andrea near the Florida coast in a week.even though is not likely it could very well happen.Allanjeffs 14:58, April 26, 2013 (UTC) : Looks kinda interesting, if this happens, it would be the second straight year with pre-season activity, like 2007-2008. While I think it'll be a while until we see Andrea, it's not out of the question we could see pre-season activity. No invests thus far this year; the last two seasons had some pre-season invests, including one that almost developed in early February last year. Ryan1000 15:18, April 26, 2013 (UTC) ::: I spy with my little eye...a blob in the GOM. This might have a chance if it doesn't crash into Florida. Ryan1000 12:56, May 1, 2013 (UTC) ::: That it would crash it would I think after it cross Florida it may have a chance.Allanjeffs 16:42, May 1, 2013 (UTC) ::::: Meh, it's dead. Andrea will come later on. Ryan1000 18:12, May 2, 2013 (UTC) ::::: Actually Ryan right now after Crossing Florida it looks the best it ever have if wasn`t for the front coming we may actually get something.Allanjeffs 20:34, May 3, 2013 (UTC) ::::::: Yeah, because of the front, I don't see much from this. The weather pattern this year is odd, with record heat, rain, and even snow in May, but I really don't know what the hurricane season will have in this ENSO-neutral season. The jetstream is in an odd position in the central U.S, but I don't know what this will mean for U.S. landfalls or impacts as 2013 progresses. 2005 was also ENSO-neutral, but that year had perfect conditions year round; it just didn't stop. I doubt 2013 will be like 2005, but it's not impossible. Ryan1000 15:54, May 4, 2013 (UTC) ::::::: The Atlantic hurricane season has begun! AndrewTalk To Me 00:09, June 1, 2013 (UTC) ::::::: 5and a half ours for me for the season to start.Allanjeffs 00:32, June 1, 2013 (UTC) Betting pools Atlantic and East Pacific. We have some new sections this year, and a modification for the pressure section for ranges of pressures instead of specific numbers. Also, the Hall of Fame is open, in case anyone wants to put their thoughts there. Ryan1000 22:15, September 27, 2012 (UTC) June Starting this...--Isaac829 01:07, June 1, 2013 (UTC) 92L.INVEST Aoi: Southeast of Cape Verde One of the best waves I've ever seen at this time of the year. It deserves to be a Aoi.--Isaac829 03:03, June 1, 2013 (UTC) : It's in the Central Atlantic now, but near 0% on the TWO; it won't develop in the next few days. However, in a week's time, when this moves into the Western Caribbean/EPac, things could get very interesting with this wave. Ryan1000 19:11, June 6, 2013 (UTC) 92L.INVEST Per Yqt, it's an invest.--Isaac829 19:33, June 6, 2013 (UTC) :It looks crazy. Really nice deep convection despite the shear. Makes Andrea look extratropical. Sucks it's only 0% right now. Yqt1001 (talk) 19:34, June 6, 2013 (UTC) :::It'll probrably get going once it reaches the Caribbean, but not right this moment. I have to admit though, it looks nice on sattelite imagery. Ryan1000 19:36, June 6, 2013 (UTC) :::Base on Ascat it looks like it is ts Barry,but I believe the NHC is not going to upgrade it because its not close to landmasses right now.Allanjeffs 19:55, June 6, 2013 (UTC) :::::The modles are largely unimpressed with 92L, but they take it on a general path to the west-northwest passing over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, North of Hispaniola and into the Bahamas. By the point it reaches the Bahamas this could develop into Barry, but most of them kill it in 48 hours time as of now. Ryan1000 22:17, June 6, 2013 (UTC) Shear destroyed 92L already. :P Yqt1001 (talk) 23:17, June 6, 2013 (UTC) : Surprise, 92L's at 10%.Isaac829 01:12, June 7, 2013 (UTC) ::: Not quite, Yqt, it still has a chance. Ryan1000 02:00, June 7, 2013 (UTC) ::: No is gone imo it was ts but was overlook because of Andrea.Allanjeffs 03:22, June 7, 2013 (UTC) ::: Down to near 0%. Upper-level winds are going to destroy 92L before it even reaches the Caribbean. AndrewTalk To Me 10:30, June 7, 2013 (UTC) ::::: None of the reliable models show development of this in the near-future, but it could develop later on if conditions lighten up. Andrea's pretty much dead anyways, rainfall will affect the east coast over the next few days. Ryan1000 15:30, June 7, 2013 (UTC) 90L.INVEST AOI: Remnants of Barbara It might reform...--Isaac829 03:03, June 1, 2013 (UTC) 90L.INVEST Also an invest.--Isaac829 03:03, June 1, 2013 (UTC) 10% by the NHC. AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND PROXIMITY TO LAND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN Allanjeffs 05:33, June 1, 2013 (UTC) :Dammit! I was about to post that! XD, beat me by seconds. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 05:35, June 1, 2013 (UTC) ::Isn't this the remnants of Barbara? Edit: Yes it is, so why do we have a section for the AOI of Barbara remnants and the invest? :P Yqt1001 (talk) 05:36, June 1, 2013 (UTC) ::: :P sorry hurricane spin maybe next.Allanjeffs 08:32, June 1, 2013 (UTC) :::I have doubts that we'll see Barbara make a comeback, but it's possible nontheless. Nothing else to really watch. The two rescent invests in the NIO were duds. This may be the only thing to watch for the time being. Ryan1000 12:50, June 1, 2013 (UTC) :::It may be Andrea not Barbara,Ryan the circulation of Barbara was killed.Allanjeffs 17:27, June 1, 2013 (UTC) ::::0% its down and out.Allanjeffs 00:25, June 2, 2013 (UTC) 01L.ANDREA Aoi: Northwest Caribbean Back up to 10% now. It is over the northwestern Caribbean. AndrewTalk To Me 14:57, June 2, 2013 (UTC) : I know, it would be Andrea Allan, but what I meant was I doubt the remnants of Barbara will redevelop either way. It's over a hostile environment and NHC doesn't see much coming from this. Neither do most of the models. The rest of the world is also pretty quiet for the time being. Ryan1000 15:26, June 2, 2013 (UTC) : Oh okay Ryan bte 90L this is a new AOI it will be declare 91L pretty soon so we should make a new heading I am talking about the aoi in the NW Caribbean.Allanjeffs 21:10, June 2, 2013 (UTC) : Up to 20% 91L would be pretty soon with us.Allanjeffs 00:29, June 3, 2013 (UTC) 91L.INVEST Yes, 91L! Basically the remnants of Barbara + a remnant of a front + monsoonal gyre gives us this 20% invest. Yqt1001 (talk) 00:47, June 3, 2013 (UTC) The remnants of Barbara were 90L and they came ashore to Mexico.Allanjeffs 01:16, June 3, 2013 (UTC) : Yeah, this is a different system altogether. I wouldn't expect more than a minimal TS from this, but some models are hyper enough to bring this up to a hurricane before hitting Florida. I doubt that will happen though. Some of the models even take this west to Mexico. Reminds me a bit of Debby last year and her initial track forecast to Texas from the Euro, but GFS took it to Florida and that's where she really went. Very interesting, and the season has barely begun. Ryan1000 17:20, June 3, 2013 (UTC) ::Up to 30%. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 23:51, June 3, 2013 (UTC) ::::Woo, it actually looks a lot better now. Andrea could very well come from this. Ryan1000 00:02, June 4, 2013 (UTC) ::::Orange it is would probably be a td or Andrea hopefully want to tach the first name of the list the Eastern Pacific is ahead of us and I hate that fact lol.Allanjeffs 17:47, June 4, 2013 (UTC) ::::40% it is we may see Andrea tomorrow guys.Allanjeffs 17:47, June 4, 2013 (UTC) ::::::I'm not surprised EPac is ahead, for this time of year, it's typical. And yes, now 40% and we could very well see Andrea soon. Ryan1000 21:08, June 4, 2013 (UTC) :::::::A lot better organized as of 1am, and would not be surprised if this got bumped up to 50% or pherhaps red by 2am TWO. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 04:48, June 5, 2013 (UTC) :::::::We may get td 1 today and ts Andrea soon after.Allanjeffs 12:57, June 5, 2013 (UTC) Recon is flying into it soon. Will be interesting to see what it finds. Yqt1001 (talk) 16:26, June 5, 2013 (UTC) :60%! First code red of 2013 ATL! Recon is getting very close to the supposed center. Let's see what they find. Yqt1001 (talk) 19:35, June 5, 2013 (UTC) ::I hope it forms!--Isaac829 19:39, June 5, 2013 (UTC) ::The game is about to begin with td 1 or ts Andrea.Allanjeffs 19:42, June 5, 2013 (UTC) ::If classified is going straight to Andrea.AL, 91, 2013060518, , BEST, 0, 253N, 866W, 35, 1006, DB,.Allanjeffs 20:00, June 5, 2013 (UTC) Hilariously, this system is poorly organized and the enviornmental conditions are not conductive for significant development. I believe this invest might become a tropical depression and nothing more. AndrewTalk To Me 21:26, June 5, 2013 (UTC) Andrew its impossible that they classified iy as a td now because they already found winds of ts they would probably go 40 or 45 its going straight to Andrea.Allanjeffs 21:29, June 5, 2013 (UTC) We have Andrea as expect-AL, 01, 2013060518, , BEST, 0, 253N, 866W, 35, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 50, 120, 0, 0, 1010, 250, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ANDREA, M, the first of the season.21:29, June 5, 2013 (UTC)Allanjeffs Tropical Storm Andrea She is here.AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS ABLE TO IDENTIFY AWELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION IN THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THISFINDING...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WILL INITIATE ADVISORIES ONTROPICAL STORM ANDREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS AHIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONEDURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS.$$FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/FRANKLIN Allanjeffs 21:33, June 5, 2013 (UTC) :1-0-0 Recon found a very broad center of circulation. Clearly only named at this time because of its proximity to land. Yqt1001 (talk) 21:38, June 5, 2013 (UTC) :Not really it says a well-defined circulation if it was close to land or not it would still have been name,btw I have seen worse ts being named like Danny and Henri in 2009 and Jose in 2011 and they were not close to land.Allanjeffs 21:49, June 5, 2013 (UTC) ::Fcst/advisory is out. 35 kt, 1002 mbar. --HurricaneMaker99 21:59, June 5, 2013 (UTC) ::::Welcome to the (official) start of the 2013 season! I don't expect Andrea to do much, Florida will reccieve some welcome rainfall but this won't be anything severe. Pretty early start to the 2013 season, but we likely have worse to come. This is also the first'' tropical'' storm Andrea to exist (the 2007 Andrea was subtropical). Ryan1000 01:38, June 6, 2013 (UTC) ::::Up to 45mph might become a 60 or 65mph ts if it continues at this pace.Allanjeffs 07:03, June 6, 2013 (UTC) ::::Up to 60mph looks like I was correct with these system.Allanjeffs 09:07, June 6, 2013 (UTC) ::::Up to 65mph it was possible she was a 70mph or 75 when she looks her best.Allanjeffs 19:03, June 6, 2013 (UTC) ::::::Not gonna get stronger; she will likely only be a re-Alberto (2006) for the region and not cause too many problems. She spawned some tornadoes but they didn't do any serious damage. Andrea almost became a hurricane though; I acknowledge her for that. Ryan1000 19:11, June 6, 2013 (UTC) Well, I did not expect this to happen. Anyway, most of the rain is to the north of Andrea's center. This means Georgia is going to have a wet day. AndrewTalk To Me 23:59, June 6, 2013 (UTC) : There is usually an average of one June storm every 2 years from 1870 until now, but there were 15 June storms in the past 18 years since the active Atlantic cycle since 1995. It could be more typical to say one June storm per year in the modern Atlantic seasons. Ryan1000 02:08, June 7, 2013 (UTC) Andrea's losing it. The storm's degenerating very fast. It is currently at 45 mph/996 mbar. AndrewTalk To Me 10:28, June 7, 2013 (UTC) Post-Tropical cyclone Andrea AL, 01, 2013060718, , BEST, 0, 350N, 789W, 40, 996, EX, 34, NEQ, 0, 200, 0, 0, 1005, 150, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ANDREA, M, Now extratropical.--Isaac829 18:39, June 7, 2013 (UTC) : It'll still bring some wet weather to New England overnight tonight and tomorrow. Ryan1000 19:02, June 7, 2013 (UTC) ::: Advisories would continue...Isaac829 21:01, June 7, 2013 (UTC) ::: Andrea is nearing New England. Winds are at 30 knots right now. AndrewTalk To Me 11:15, June 8, 2013 (UTC) ::::NHC has issued their last advisory as Andrea moves away from New England. And where did you see that, Andrew? The last NHC advisory says 40 kt. --HurricaneMaker99 15:44, June 8, 2013 (UTC) ::::I think I misinterpreted the wind speed to be 30 knots. AndrewTalk To Me 20:57, June 8, 2013 (UTC) 02L.NONAME AOI: Southwest Caribbean Broad low pressure north of Panama and a tropical wave to its northwest. A combination of these two factors would be a recipe for Barry. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 20:05, June 15, 2013 (UTC) Now 10%.Isaac829 23:54, June 15, 2013 (UTC) :Hmm, that didn't take too long. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 02:03, June 16, 2013 (UTC) :I mention in Dr jeff Masters that this would probably have been mention tonight looks like I was right anyways this might have a shot at becoming Barry after crossing the Yucatan.Allanjeffs 04:19, June 16, 2013 (UTC) ::Right. This could turn out to be another Bret. I do not like this one bit. This season could turn up to be another 2005. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 06:03, June 16, 2013 (UTC) ::mjm it might be a repeat of Bret,Gert or Jose of 2005 and if this one develops into Barry we might have Chantal by the end of the month as the gfs is portraying a record for June.Allanjeffs 06:24, June 16, 2013 (UTC) This AOI is up at 20%, but it should slam into Central America soon. AndrewTalk To Me 14:26, June 16, 2013 (UTC) 30% and the model are showing it moving into the BOC.Might be Barry by Tuesday.Allanjeffs 18:05, June 16, 2013 (UTC) :I'm not so sure about this making it into the BoC. A deep layer monsoon trough is building up in the Eastern Pacific. I think this will end up like Arthur. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 21:50, June 16, 2013 (UTC) :This might develop into Barry before we anticpate.Allanjeffs 22:55, June 16, 2013 (UTC) 93L.INVEST Now invested. I think this could be like Bret in 2005, but not too sure. SHIPS doesn't get this higher than 27 knots. But storms in the BoC are kinda hard to forecast. Sometimes they explode and get much stronger than anticipated (a great example being Karl 2010), but at other times they might not do much at all. It has amongst the warmest waters in the entire North Atlantic. Ryan1000 03:34, June 17, 2013 (UTC) :I kind of doubt whether this storm could make it into the BoC. 93L should have a track similar to that of Arthur's. A deep layer ridge is strengthening over Texas and will steer 93L generally westwards. A good analogue to this would be Arthur. The two looked quite similarly on satellite at one point. Arthur never made it into the red tier as far as I can remember and was named after it was inland. If it does make its way to the BoC, I agree with you in the correlation with Bret. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 06:28, June 17, 2013 (UTC) :As 93L nears Central America, it is now up to 40%. I still do not believe this invest will significantly develop before landfall. AndrewTalk To Me 12:33, June 17, 2013 (UTC) :::Most of the models do take it into the southern Bay of Campeche, but then again, as SHIPS indicates, it might not be anything when it gets there. There is still the possibility this could be like Arthur and become Barry just off of northern Honduras before making landfall in Belize, though I'm still not ruling out a re-Bret. Either way, not much will come from this system, maybe some flooding but that's about it. Ryan1000 13:24, June 17, 2013 (UTC) Tropical Depression Two Surprise renumber! Approaching Belize now, expected to become Barry in the BOC. I think that it'll manage to get named when recon finds it later tonight. Morning satellite imagery found a strong LLC and decent organized convection. Yqt1001 (talk) 15:10, June 17, 2013 (UTC) TD2 will probably become Barry in the BOC.Allanjeffs 16:27, June 17, 2013 (UTC) That was fast! However, I still do not expect this depression to become Barry until it reaches the Bay of Campeche. It looks phenomenal on satellite imagery. AndrewTalk To Me 18:00, June 17, 2013 (UTC) : Interesting season thus far. NHC might have to consider extending the boundary of the Atlantic to match the EPac or so. Every Atlantic year since 2005 had a storm form in June or earlier in the Atlantic (counting the unnamed TD in May 2009). Anyways, NHC doesn't expect this to be Barry until it hits the BoC, but it isn't impossible it could become one real quick before it hits Belize. This has been an impressive season so far. Ryan1000 18:08, June 17, 2013 (UTC) ::: And it looks like it won't become a re-Arthur, HurricaneSpin. Made landfall in Belize without becoming named. Now it's only chance at being Barry is in the BoC before making landfall in Mexico, like Bret '05. Ryan1000 01:41, June 18, 2013 (UTC) ::::Right, it probably will not get named. But I used Arthur as a analogue because I doubt that 92L will make it into the BoC at the time.Despite all the official forecasts pushing TD2 into the BoC earlier, several deep layer ridges are building up over central US. The steering winds also is due roughly west. I think we will have to wait for Barry another time. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 03:00, June 18, 2013 (UTC) ::::::It still could be a TS when it reaches the southernmost BoC, but NHC no longer expects that and they barely take it into the BoC anyways. Some models even kill this thing over Mexico. I don't blame them on that. Ryan1000 11:50, June 18, 2013 (UTC) ::::::It has reach the BOC probably organized a little more and become Barry.Allanjeffs 21:12, June 18, 2013 (UTC) Tropical storm warnings. I wonder if recon will find Barry tomorrow morning. Yqt1001 (talk) 02:52, June 19, 2013 (UTC) : They're watches now, not warnings, but they could become warnings soon. But I still think this will be Barry by sometime tomorrow regardless (later today by UTC). Ryan1000 04:06, June 19, 2013 (UTC)